BLOOMBERG 🔒| Figuring out what a stock will do next is never a straightforward affair. But taking a view on the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking oil right now requires levels of understanding that even Wall Street veterans want no part of. Maybe it’s fortunate that regulations restrict making fresh bearish bets against the U.S. Oil Fund, considering all the moving parts at play. Besides an opinion on ultra-volatile oil prices, a trader needs a view on the price impact of its ever-changing mix of futures contracts, as well as an improbably nuanced understanding of how ETFs work now that it has suspended share issuance. All while the company prepares for a reverse split.
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